Strategy
Writing a commercialization plan that is not wishful thinking
Every SBIR agency wants commercial evidence, not a hockey stick chart. What customer discovery, pricing and route to market should look like in a federal application.
The credibility problem
Reviewers read hundreds of commercialization sections that all forecast a large share of a large market. The projections carry almost no weight because nothing behind them is verifiable.
What does carry weight is evidence of contact with real buyers: interviews conducted, questions asked, what changed in your plan as a result.
Customer discovery you can cite
Quantify the work. The number of interviews, the roles and organizations involved, and two or three specific findings that were uncomfortable enough to be believable.
Letters of support from named potential customers, with a sentence describing what they would evaluate and when, are worth more than any market size figure.
Build the market from the bottom up
Start with the unit: who buys, how many exist, what they pay today, and what they would pay for your improvement. Multiply upward and state your assumptions so a reviewer can check them.
A defensible ten million dollar beachhead beats an indefensible ten billion dollar total market every time.
Show the road after the award
Agencies want to know what happens when federal money stops. Set out the regulatory or certification path if one applies, the manufacturing or deployment route, and who funds the next stage.
Naming the specific follow-on funding you will pursue, whether Phase II, strategic investment or venture capital, shows that you see the award as a step rather than a destination.
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