Success rates and competition
SBIR Success Rates by Agency: NSF, NIH, DoD, DOE and NASA
The short answer
SBIR Phase I success rates generally sit between roughly 10% and 20% depending on the agency and the fiscal year, and Phase II rates between roughly 35% and 55%. Rates shift with appropriations and proposal volume, and agency averages hide wide variation between institutes, components and individual topics.
SBIR success rates by agency
| Agency | Phase I | Phase II | What the number hides |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSF | Around 12% to 18% | Around 45% to 55% | Project Pitch screening removes weak fits before the full proposal, so the reported Phase I rate reflects an already filtered pool. |
| NIH | Around 15% to 20% | Around 35% to 45% | Rates vary widely by institute. Some NIH institutes fund well above the average, others well below, so institute choice moves the odds. |
| DoD | Around 10% to 15% | Around 40% to 50% | Topic-specific. A single component topic may receive dozens of proposals for one or two awards, so topic selection dominates the outcome. |
| DOE | Around 12% to 17% | Around 45% to 55% | The Letter of Intent stage filters the field early, and subtopic alignment is the most common reason for an early screen-out. |
| NASA | Around 12% to 20% | Around 40% to 50% | Subtopic fit and a credible infusion path into a NASA mission or programme carry disproportionate weight. |
Figures are indicative ranges drawn from recent agency reporting and move each fiscal year. Confirm current published rates and award data at the SBIR.gov awards database, the NSF America’s Seed Fund site and NIH RePORT.
What differentiates funded SBIR applications
Technical risk is named, not hidden
Funded proposals identify the single hardest technical unknown and describe the experiment that resolves it. Rejected proposals describe a plan that reads as though nothing can go wrong, which reviewers read as inexperience.
The commercialisation plan has real names in it
Specific customers, letters of support, quantified market size with a defensible source, and a route to revenue that does not depend on further grants. Generic market statistics score poorly across every agency.
The work plan matches the budget line by line
Reviewers check whether the milestones can actually be delivered by the staff and equipment you have budgeted. Mismatches between the narrative and the budget are one of the fastest ways to lose points.
The proposal answers the topic that was published
At agencies that fund against topics and subtopics, adjacent work is screened out before technical review. Choosing the right topic is a bigger lever on your odds than polishing the prose.
Resubmission is treated as part of the plan
A large share of eventual winners were declined first. Teams that rebuild around reviewer comments and reapply see materially better cumulative odds than teams that stop after one attempt.
How to read a success rate before you commit
- Compare the topic-level odds, not the agency average
- Check whether a pre-screen (pitch or Letter of Intent) filters the pool
- Separate Phase I odds from Phase II conversion odds
- Account for resubmission: cumulative odds beat single-cycle odds
- Weigh fit to your technology above the headline percentage
- Confirm the fiscal year the figure was published for
Deciding between programmes? Compare SBIR and STTR or read the agency guides for NSF, NIH, DoD, DOE and NASA.
SBIR success rate questions founders ask us
What is the SBIR success rate?
Across federal agencies, SBIR Phase I success rates generally sit between roughly 10% and 20%, and Phase II rates between roughly 35% and 55% because only prior Phase I awardees may apply. Rates move each fiscal year with appropriations and proposal volume, so treat published figures as a guide rather than a fixed number.
Which agency has the highest SBIR success rate?
NIH and NASA often report Phase I rates at the higher end of the range, while DoD topics can be among the most competitive because many proposals chase a small number of awards per topic. The more useful question is which agency funds your technology, because a strong fit at a competitive agency beats a weak fit at an easier one.
Why is the NSF SBIR success rate hard to compare?
NSF requires a Project Pitch before you may submit a full proposal. Pitches that are not invited never become proposals, so the published Phase I rate is calculated on a pre-screened pool and looks different from agencies that accept all comers.
Does using a grant writer improve SBIR success rates?
Experienced writers improve the odds mainly by preventing avoidable losses: wrong topic, unaddressed review criteria, a commercialisation plan without evidence, compliance failures, or a budget that does not support the work plan. The underlying technical innovation still has to be fundable.
What is the Phase I to Phase II conversion rate?
Most agencies convert a substantial share of Phase I awardees into Phase II, commonly in the 35% to 55% range, because the applicant pool is limited to companies that already delivered Phase I results. Strong Phase I data and a credible commercialisation story are the main drivers.
Should I reapply if my SBIR proposal is declined?
Usually yes. Reviewer comments tell you exactly what failed, and rebuilding the proposal around them for the next cycle is the single most reliable way to raise your cumulative odds. Many funded companies were declined at least once first.
Free download
NSF SBIR Phase I readiness checklist and federal deadline calendar
Two pages, no email required. Every registration, eligibility test and proposal section you need before you write, plus the next deadline for NSF, NIH, DoD, DOE, NASA and USDA with the date you realistically need to start.
- 37-point readiness checklist
- Six agency deadlines with lead times
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